The job outlook post the COVID pandemic has been of great interest for many economists, policymakers, and business leaders, as people look to understand job forecasts and labor stats to better react and manage worker movements.
Workers meanwhile are also keeping tabs on prospects and the most in-demand jobs, with as many as 52% of US workers said to be considering changing jobs in the short-term, and 44% already having plans in place to change jobs.
With this in mind, we wanted to better understand reveal the job projections and trends benign forecast by federal agencies, helping workers to find the states offering the role that fit them most.
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(PMP), we’ve analyzed the roles that are forecast to see the biggest increases both in the short (2020-2022) and long term (2020-2030).
Recent data from the BLS estimates that over 11.9 million jobs will be created by 2030, taking the US’ overall job numbers from 153.5 million in 2020 to 165.4 million in 2030; an increase of 7.7%.
Meanwhile, short-term job forecasts predict that over 4.1 million more jobs will have been created by the end of 2022 when compared to the employment number in 2020.
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When analyzing the figures, data from the BLS and PMP predict that nearly 200, 000 (192, 610) home health and personal care aide roles will be created by the end of 2022. However, by 2030, home health and personal care aide roles are predicted to become the most in demand role; with nearly 1.3 million home health and personal care aid estimated to be created by 2030.
To understand how the US job market is forecast to increase and recover from the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on jobs, we’ve analyzed the adjusted and non-adjusted job predictions data.
Motion picture projectionists are predicted to see the greatest percentage increase in job numbers by 2030, with job numbers increasing 70.5% from 1, 700 (in 2020) to 2, 900 (in 2030), an increase of 1, 200 over the 10 years.
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Of the five occupations forecast to see the greatest percentage increases in job numbers, two in the green energy industry. Job numbers for Wind turbine service technicians (4, 700) and Solar photovoltaic installers (6, 100) occupations are estimated to increase by a combined 10, 800 by 2030, to 29, 600 across both occupations.
As the table shows, the four of the 10 occupations predicted to see the highest percentage increase in job numbers are based in the entertainment industry, as projectionists, lobby attendants, agents, and costume attendants; pointing to a noticeable bounce back from the impact of COVID-19 on the entertainment jobs market.
All but four of the top ten occupations forecast to see the most growth by 2030 (including COVID recovery), will earn above the median annual earning reported by the Census Bureau ($41, 535) - those being; Motion picture projectionists, Ushers and ticket takers, Restaurant cooks, and Exercise trainers and group fitness instructors.
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The average annual median wage for the roles projected to see the fastest growth between 2020 and 2030 is $50, 965, more than $9, 400 per year more than the median annual earning reported by the Census Bureau.
Due to the impact of COVID-19 on various industries, some of the 10 occupations predicted to see the greatest increases will be making up for lost roles during 2020.
To counter this, we analyzed the BLS Labour Projections to see which roles will see the greatest percentage increase in jobs numbers, not as part of a significant recovery to the COVID-19 pandemic.
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As the chart shows, many of the roles projected to see the greatest increase in jobs by 2030 are in the health, green energy, and information industries, with Wind turbine service technicians (68.2%) projected to see the sharpest increase in job roles.
Comparing the two charts and the median wages for the roles projected to see the most growth by 2030, highlights how lower-paid roles and occupations were hurt most by the pandemic.
While the top growth occupations including recovery growth have an average median annual wage of $51, 867, the top growing roles without recovery growth make an average median annual wage of $81, 499 - almost $30, 000 difference when we take into account recovery growth.
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Understanding the roles that are projected to see the greatest increases in job numbers, is useful to see the “new” investments in roles. However, it’s also important to understand which jobs will see the most jobs created in actual terms.
As the table shows, nearly 10% of the 11.9 million jobs to be created in the US by 2030 will be home health and personal care aid roles, with nearly 1.13 million jobs projected to be created in this occupation.
Restaurant cooks and fast food/counter workers are projected to see the second and third most new jobs by 2030 respectively, forecasts predicting 563, 500 restaurant cook roles, and 517, 500 fast food/counter worker roles to be created by 2030.
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Overall, the BLS data shows that nearly 1 in 5 (18.1%) of the roles projected to be created by 2030 will earn an average median annual wage of $26, 580 - 36% below the median annual earning reported by the Census Bureau ($41, 535).
All but three of the ten roles projected to see the most roles created by 2030 earn below the median annual earnings reported by the Census Bureau, those being; Software developers and software quality assurance analysts and testers, Registered nurses, and General and operations managers.
In addition to the national long-term job outlook, the short-term jobs market - according to the PMP - highlights how many of the changes we are likely to see by 2030 could be centered around just a handful of states.
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According to the Projections Managing Partnership (PMP), short-term job forecasts between (2020 and the end of 2022) predict over 4.1 million more jobs will be created between the BLS’ 2020 starting projections and the PMP’s employment forecasts.
Analyzing the PMP data, we were able to find which states are forecast to see the states where the most jobs will be created by 2030. The data also revealed which occupations are projected to see the most change as a percentage and as actual numbers.
According to the figures analyzed, California is projected to see the most jobs created (1.8 million) by 2022, closely followed by New York (1.48 million).
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Within the Golden State’s 11.2% increase in job numbers, retail sales roles are predicted to see the most jobs created over the next two years (87, 100), followed by food preparation and servers (81, 900).
The table below lets you view the top 10 occupations expected to see the most jobs created in your state by 2022, please use the tool below:
Our analysis found that Nevada is predicted to see the sharpest rise in total jobs between 2020 and 2022, with jobs rising by an estimated 18.5%. Just behind Nevada, New York is predicted to have the second-highest increase in the total jobs created (17%).
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To view the occupations expected to see the highest increase in numbers in your state by 2022, please use the tool below:
By analyzing data from the PMP, projecting occupation job numbers between 2020 and 2022, we learned that over 357, 000 retail sales jobs are predicted to be created in the next two years, an increase of nearly 10% (9.6%).
Of the 10 occupations projected to see the most jobs created between 2020 and 2022, four are predicted to be in food preparation or service roles, including 312, 680 fast-food counter workers and 211, 760 restaurant cooks.
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California is predicted to see the most retail sales positions created in the next two years, with over 87, 000 predicted to be created or made available, followed by New York (86, 000) and Texas (34, 000).
While actual job numbers provide an insight into where the ‘most’ jobs will be, many of those occupations are already well established and even the smallest percentage increase can equal thousands of jobs being created.
In terms of the roles set to see the highest rate of job creation by 2022, our analysis of state figures in the PMP database found manicurists and pedicurists roles are projected to rise by over 51%, with motion picture projectionist roles predicted to increase by nearly 37%.
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With both personal care and cinema particularly impacted by COVID-19 responses from state and national governments, this could go some way to explaining the boom in the roles predicted to increase between 2020 base rates and 2022 projections.
US labor stats and forecasts were sourced from the Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Projections Managing Partnership (PMP). The analysis of the latest BLS employment projections data analyzed tables 1.1 through to 1.7, providing insights on the national occupation forecasts between 2020 and 2030.
Data available from the PMP provides insight into the state projections of labor forecasts between 2020 and 2022. The short-term outlooks in the PMP data did not provide figures for the state of Maine and the District of Columbia, as such these were omitted from the short-term data and map.
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Due to state reporting differences, jobs titles can differ between states and the national occupation matrix and codes. Where possible we
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